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The wisest move would be to repeat the same testing over lower timeframes to verify the edge plays out there as well, but I would not be able to trust my results because I would have vague memories of where price went because of the testing I just did. If I ever find myself in a losing streak of more than 8 trades, I will reduce my risk per trade further. My goal is to have a drawdown cap of 4%, so my risk per trade will be 0.54%. The expected losing streak for this system, using the extended target, is 7 trades in a row in a sample size of 100 trades. In that case I will go for the unextended target. I will probably trade this strategy using the -100.0 level as target, unless there is an area in the way. This is because there was a resistance/support area in the way of the -100.0 extension level, but there was enough room for price to reach the -61.8 level. In addition, most of the trades that reached the unextended target but reversed before reaching the extended, were trades that I would have most likely not have taken with the extented target. The test suggests the strategy to be more profitable with the extended target. Here you can see the two uncompounded equity curves side by side: red is unextended and blue is extended. This seems like a lot, but remember you're splitting risk in half. The highest drawdown for both systems was 18 R.The average win is 1.92 R while the average loss is -1.00 R. Unextended: 172.20 R of return, 2.19 of profit factor, 0.56 R of expected value, 53.23% winrate.The average win is 2.72 R while the average loss is -1.00 R. Extended: 223.46 R of return, 2.34 of profit factor, 0.72 R of expected value, 46.13% winrate.If you're not interested in the details, here are the stats of the strategy based on how I traded it. I took a total of 310 trades - although keep in mind that every position is most often composed by two entries, meaning that you can roughly halve this number.

I backtested on the Daily chart, from January 2017 to December 2019, over 28 currency pairs. You can see the UNCOMPOUNDED equity curve in the Summary tab, together with the overall statistics for the system. In the 'Trades' tab, you will find every trade I backtested with an attached screenshot and the results it would have had with the extended and the unextended target. There are a lot of entries, so it may take a while for them to load. You can find my spreadsheet at this link.

Hopefully I won't be doxxed, but I think I should be fine. I am going to do something I hope I won't regret and share the link to my spreadsheet.

ParallaxFx used the -61.8 as a target, but never tried the second one, so I wanted to compare the two and see what happens. Instead of using a fixed target of the -100.0 Fibonacci extension, I tracked both the -61.8 and the -100.0 targets. If you want to read more about the strategy, go to my previous thread where I linked it. I have just completed my second run of testing, and I am here to share my results with those who are interested.

I am backtesting the strategy shared by ParallaxFx. I have the feeling my rambles may be long, so I'm not going to repeat anything I already said in my previous post for the sake of keeping this brief. This thread is the direct continuation of my previous entry, which you can find here.

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